Category: Market Insights
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The Order of Returns
Stocks are near record highs and treasury yields are above 5%. Why that combination matters most for investors taking withdrawals.
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Hiking Into an Oil Shock
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, markets now expect about two more increases by year-end, and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.17%. Almost none of the move has come from inflation expectations. Investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate can be read from market prices. On January 2nd the expectation was…
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Designed to Lag
What underperformance is supposed to cost, and how to tell when it costs too much Most defensive equity strategies make some version of the same trade. They give up some portion of the market’s gains in exchange for absorbing less of its losses. Advisors know this in the abstract, and then a year arrives where…
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The Long End Signals Concern
As of 08/25/2026 Back to 2007 On August 17, the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, its highest close since June 2007. The last time the long bond finished a session higher, the first iPhone had not yet gone on sale. An entire generation of portfolios has been built, stress-tested, and retired without ever seeing…
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The Rotation the Index Never Registered
July was, at the index level, among the least eventful months of the year. The S&P 500 finished it down 0.13%, a move small enough to round to nothing in a client review. Beneath that surface the same month took the S&P 500 Momentum Index down 11.06% and the PHLX (Philadelphia Stock Exchange) Semiconductor Index…
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The Bill Arrives Later
Record earnings, shrinking free cash flow, and the accounting gap between them S&P 500 companies are expected to post year-over-year earnings growth of roughly 38% for the second quarter, and the full-year 2026 consensus has been revised up from about 14% in February to north of 23%. Analysts normally trim estimates at this point in…
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Four Repricings in Six Weeks
As of July 16, 2026 What two months of semiconductor swings are actually telling investors The Wrong Surprise For a week, nearly every desk on the Street gave the same guidance: June’s headline inflation would look soft on falling gasoline, so ignore it and watch core, which would prove stubborn near 2.9%. The headline was…
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Whiplash Without Direction
What two months of semiconductor swings are actually telling investors Semiconductor stocks have been on a wild ride this year, and the past two months have made the case in miniature. Since late April, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) has gained roughly 46%, a number a long-only investor would happily take in any environment.…
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A Quieter Fed
As of 6/17/2026 Why Warsh’s first meeting is about the yardstick and the message, not the rate On Wednesday the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady, leaving it in the range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent where it has sat since last year. The decision surprised no one; markets had priced a hold…
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The Window Reopens: What a Wave of New Listings Is Telling Us
As of 6/1/2026 The US equity market entered June at fresh records, with the S&P 500 near 7,600, the Nasdaq above 27,000 for the first time, and both indexes riding a ninth consecutive weekly gain. Beneath the economic data releases, a different signal has come back to life. After years of near silence, the market…