Author: Brian Weisenberger, CFA, Chief Market Strategist & Managing Director
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When the Usual Diversifiers Stop Diversifying
To view as a PDF, click here. Markets have a way of reminding investors that “defense” is not a single trade. In a typical growth scare, the playbook is familiar: equities weaken, Treasury yields fall, long bonds rally, and gold benefits from the move toward safety. That has not been the pattern in late March.…
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Diverging Signals Are Driving Markets Into Year-End
As we close out 2025, the investment landscape is defined by a widening disconnect between policy rhetoric and market pricing, alongside specific pockets of inflation driven by secular trends like AI. This week’s Market Insights focuses on these divergences, from the Fed’s “hawkish cut” to the valuation gap between large and small caps, to help…
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Mapping the Maturity Wall
For the better part of 2025, the credit market has been defined by a suspicious calm. High yield spreads have remained historically tight, and corporate defaults have been benign. However, this tranquility masks a simple mechanical reality: corporations have largely been surviving on pandemic-era pricing, debt issued in the ultra-low rate environment of 2020 and…
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When Expectations Get Crowded: The AI Trade at a Crossroads
The AI boom has been the dominant market story of the past few years, and 2025 has only intensified that narrative. Nvidia recently became the first company in history to reach a $5 trillion market capitalization, with its share price up roughly twelvefold since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 (10/29/2025). A small group…
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From Funding to Fundamentals
Banks drew a record $50.35B from the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on October 31 while overnight reverse repo usage finished $51.8B. The two-way pull signals tight balance sheets into month-end. When funding tightens, multiples get more sensitive and credit becomes the referee. That is the first link in this week’s story, and it sets…
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Market Insights: October 23, 2025
Buybacks Paused in Q2, Momentum Builds for Year-EndUS companies slowed repurchases during the blackout-heavy second quarter, but the full-year pace still points to roughly $1.1–$1.2 trillion in 2025, near or above record levels. This may indicate company demand remains meaningful even when the cadence dips around earnings. As trading windows reopen in November, seasonality turns…
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Flying High while Flying Blind
Stocks continue to make new highs despite a noisy backdrop. Through October 7, the S&P 500 has logged 32 record closes this year, with all but three arriving in the past three and a half months. That strength shifts the burden of proof to anything that might interrupt the trend, which is why we are…
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The Fed’s Tricky Crossroads
The Federal Reserve enters next week’s policy meeting with markets already making up their minds. After August’s dismal jobs report, futures markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and even an 11% probability of a deeper 50-basis-point move. The challenge for policymakers is that while growth is flashing red, inflation risks…
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The Market’s Contradictions: Growth, Inflation, and Risk
Markets thrive on narratives. Sometimes they are cohesive and easy to follow, other times they are riddled with contradictions that leave investors wondering which signals to trust. Today, we find ourselves in the latter environment. Leading indicators are warning of renewed inflationary pressures, placing the Federal Reserve in one of its most unusual policy dilemmas…