Stocks continue to make new highs despite a noisy backdrop. Through October 7, the S&P 500 has logged 32 record closes this year, with all but three arriving in the past three and a half months. That strength shifts the burden of proof to anything that might interrupt the trend, which is why we are focused on leadership concentration, credit conditions, and the earnings path over the next two weeks.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) as of October 7, 2025
Leadership Remains Concentrated, Which Raises the Stakes for Results
The top 10 stocks account for roughly 41% of S&P 500 weight while representing about 30% of forward earnings. Concentration can power index-level returns when leaders keep delivering, but it also heightens sensitivity to single-name surprises on guidance or margins.
Source: Augur Infinity as of October 7, 2025
Credit Continues to Vote Soft Landing
Spreads sit near the tight end of their cycle range, consistent with contained default risk and adequate liquidity. Credit remains firmly in calm territory: High Yield (HY) at 2.76% sits around the 3rd percentile of its last-decade range (and below 3% on roughly two-thirds of the past year, including a 108-day run), while Investment Grade (IG) at 0.74% is near the very bottom of its 10-year distribution. Tight credit doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing, but it helps explain how equities can grind higher even as the cost of capital is firmer than a couple of years ago. With credit this calm and the macro tape thinned by delayed releases, the next real read comes from earnings.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) as of October 7, 2025
Data Delayed, Markets Lean on Other Signals
With a federal shutdown pausing the flow of official statistics, investors are operating with fewer instruments on the dashboard. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended updates, and marquee releases like payrolls and CPI are delayed, which means the usual cadence of macro checks is offbeat for now. In that gap, markets are leaning more on prices, spreads, and what companies say about demand, costs, and capex as earnings roll in. The punchline for investors is simple: until the data spigot is turned back on, market action and corporate guidance are doing more of the signaling than the calendar would suggest.
*GS MAP relevance score
While jobless claims are not being officially released, the source data needs to reconstruct the official series is still being updated.
Source: Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings, Not Headlines, Are Doing More of the Signaling Right Now
For Q3, consensus points to roughly 8% year-over-year EPS growth, and bottom-up estimates edged higher during the quarter, something we have not seen often since late 2021. The forward ladder from FactSet’s most recent Earnings Insight shows growth expected in each of the next four quarters as well, with mid- to high-single-digit gains into year-end and stepping higher across 2025 toward double digits. That path keeps the door open for further equity gains if margins hold and top-line trends remain steady, especially with revision leadership still coming from the large growth sectors.
Source: FactSet as of October 6, 2025
What We’re Watching Next
– Whether breadth improves or the leaders keep carrying the index.
– Whether credit spreads stay anchored as earnings roll in.
– How management teams will frame 2026 revenue growth, capex, and margin durability given a firmer discount rate.
Bottom Line
Prices are strong, leadership is narrow, credit is calm, and the cost of capital is a bit higher. That mix can support further gains, but it also raises the bar for execution. Over the next two weeks, earnings and guidance will matter more than any single headline.
