October 23, 2025

Market Insights: October 23, 2025

Brian Weisenberger, CFA, Chief Market Strategist & Managing Director

Buybacks Paused in Q2, Momentum Builds for Year-End
US companies slowed repurchases during the blackout-heavy second quarter, but the full-year pace still points to roughly $1.1–$1.2 trillion in 2025, near or above record levels. This may indicate company demand remains meaningful even when the cadence dips around earnings. As trading windows reopen in November, seasonality turns more supportive, and a small group of cash-rich names typically does a large share of the buying. The four charts that follow show what has changed lately, who is driving activity, how Q2 shifts lined up with Q3 performance, and why the calendar may help into year-end.

Record Start to the Year, Then a Step Down
S&P 500 companies set a new quarterly buyback record in Q1 2025 at $293.5B, then slowed to $234.6B in Q2 as activity cooled during blackout season and amid some macro uncertainty (−20.1% vs Q1; essentially flat year over year at −0.6%). Even with that pause, the 12-month total through June reached $997.8B, up 13.7% from the prior year. S&P Dow Jones Indices also noted that Q3 2025 buyback expenditures were expected to increase back to near record levels as windows reopened. That slowdown wasn’t shared evenly. A few very large programs continued to carry much of the total.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices releases June 25, 2025 and September 17, 2025.

A Few Giants do a Lot of the Buying
Buyback activity remains concentrated at the top. In Q2 2025, the top 20 firms accounted for 51.3% of all S&P 500 repurchases, above the 47.7% historical average and the 44.5% pre-COVID average. The biggest individual programs came from Apple ($23.6B), Meta ($14.3B), Alphabet ($13.6B), NVIDIA ($11.6B), and JPMorgan ($7.5B); the top four alone represented about 27% of the quarter’s total. That concentration means a handful of decisions can noticeably influence the overall numbers when windows reopen. With that backdrop, the next question is whether Q2 shifts showed up in the very next quarter’s returns.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices September 17, 2025.

Q2 Buybacks to Q3 Performance
There isn’t a one-size-fits-all link between Q2 repurchase changes and Q3 performance, but the cross-section is informative. Utilities were the only sector to increase buybacks quarter over quarter and posted solid Q3 gains through Sep 30; Health Care cut the most and lagged; Tech eased buybacks and still led on earnings and AI momentum. The takeaway for brokers: buybacks can support an existing setup, but fundamentals and themes tend to drive returns. That frames the calendar we’re heading into.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 Q2 2025 Buybacks sector table; S&P US Sector Dashboard, September 30, 2025

Windows Reopen Into a Friendly Seasonal Stretch
History trends to favor year-end strength, though outcomes can vary. Since 1928, December has posted 70 up months vs 27 down, and November is also favorable at 60 up vs 37 down. By average return, July (1.71%), December (1.27%), and November (1.02%) lead the pack, while September is the only negative month (−1.08%). With most companies exiting blackout windows in early November and Q4 accounting for about 26% of full-year buybacks in 2024, the seasonal pattern and corporate demand often line up.

Source: Yardeni Research/LSEG Datastream, data through Sep 2025

Closing
The headline is unchanged. Buybacks eased during the blackout-heavy part of the calendar, but overall capacity remains large and led by a few cash-rich leaders. As windows reopen into November and December, company buying is expected to pick up again, potentially adding a tailwind if markets remain orderly.

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